Posted: June 3, 2012
The UNSC June Update for Iraq is a precursor to what will be discussed in the High Level Coordinators meeting come mid June. The High Level meeting occurs ever 6-months to discuss Iraq-Kuwait relations.
In my opinion the information given in this report somewhat mirrors what we have already read in news reports published from Iraqi and Kuwait news agencies. Unfortunately it remains somewhat vague as to what was actually agreed upon and considered resolved. In some reports it would appear all issues were completed but some news reports would read as though some issues still remain.
I know many are hopeful Iraq will emerge from Chapter VII in June 2012. Its a strong possibility that could be the case.
However considering the news reports neglect a clear consolidation of the facts it is a strong possibility Iraq will remain under sanctions until the remaining issues are resolved.
The four options reported in the UN update and are possible outcomes of June meeting:
What these possible outcomes suggest is
- The UNSC could acknowledge the strides both countries have taken to restore peace between the two nations
- The UNSC could encourage Iraq to continue resolving unsettled matters or loose ends prior to hearing any move to lift Iraq from Chapter VII sanctions
- The UNSC could extend the coordinators efforts an additional 6-months allowing Iraq and Kuwait to continue mending relations
- The UN could tell Iraq needs to continue resolving the differences with Kuwait before Chapter VII is lifted.
However its a possibility the UNSC is prepared to acknowledge the efforts of Iraq and Kuwait but will tell Iraq it must settle the remaining issues which exist (whatever those may be).
They will then reschedule another High Level Coordinators meeting in December 2012…Unless something different is planned.
Considering 3 out of the 4 possible outcomes are leaning more toward Iraq needing to resolve outstanding issues it would appear there is less than a 25% chance Iraq will emerge from Chapter VII in June 2012.
Keep in mind..if the UNSC decides not to lift Iraq from Chapter VII in the June 2012 meeting that doesn’t mean Iraq and Kuwait cant go back to the drawing board and come to full resolutions sometime prior to December 2012.
If that should occur Iraq and Kuwait could call for a special meeting to discuss this matter.
If these matters funnel to the end of 2012 it will be one of multiple events taking place in the latter portion of 2012.
1. New Iraqi currency is said to begin its printing in September 2012
2. Kuwait PM is scheduled to return to Iraq to discuss further relations with Iraq later in the year, presumably prior to December 2012.
3. Another UNSC High Level Coordinators meeting in December (possible)
4. Currency reform is scheduled to take full effect in January 2013.
I will caveat all of the above is my opinion and anything is possible. These are interesting and exciting times so stay tuned!